With Russia and 5 NATO member states in the Arctic Council, followers of the geopolitics of the Arctic have a reason to be concerned about the ongoing Ukraine crisis. However, renewed Arctic non-military collaboration between Russia and NATO, whilst not immediately conceivable, could provide an important facilitator of improved cooperation between Russia and the West. Russian Militarisation The Arctic region is increasingly becoming strategically important. Russia’s strategic goals of securing energy resources in the region have led to the creation of a new specialized Arctic military force. The ‘Northern Fleet Unified Strategic Command’ aims to keep out “unwelcome guests” according to Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. Similarly, the reopening of the ex-Soviet base on Kotelny Island is another example that supports those who propose the re-emergence of Cold War animosity. NATO Indecision In contrast, NATO has been both divided and unclear as to its potential role in the Arctic. At the beginning of 2009, the then NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer indicated a desire for a reinvigorated NATO role in the High North, involving enhanced search and rescue (SAR), disaster response, and increased energy security as key areas to add value. This desire has failed to manifest itself into action. NATO’s Vision 2020, which outlines the organisation’s most important strategic concepts, doesn’t mention the Arctic once, and neither was it mentioned in the 2014 Wales NATO summit declaration. A divide between Norway, feeling threatened by Russian activity, and Canada, wary of drawing in more states into the Arctic debate, largely explains this political paralysis. Potential for cooperation
Initiatives such as the establishment of the Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy, the Arctic Council, and the Inuit Circumpolar Conference, show how the Arctic has been exemplary in transnational cooperation, both on the state and sub-state level. These projects have helped create productive networks and relationships that aim to solve regional issues through cooperation. Whilst security challenges in the Arctic might not be military in nature, there is a need for military capabilities to support civilian authorities. NATO should encourage collaborative exercises and task forces in order to facilitate communication between states and act as a strategic counterweight to Russia. By acting in a non-military collaborative manner, NATO reduces the risk of antagonizing Russia. This should also involve formalizing information sharing, transparency and join situational awareness, and ensuring security challenges in the region are dealt with in a transparent and cooperative manner. Through promoting energy security, search and rescue and disaster response, NATO can help extend current transnational Arctic cooperation into the security sphere. As an intergovernmental alliance NATO has the opportunity to encourage positive, transparent security related action in the Arctic that maintains the peaceful and balanced relations between states. Policy indecision risks encouraging further Russian militarisation and strength in the region, increasing the risk of an inevitable confrontation in the future.
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August 2015
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